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| Ruby Tower collapse. Manila earthquake 1968 |
The recent earthquakes with epicenters in Batangas province has brought to the fore the vulnerability of the National Capital Region (NCR) to the expected movement of the West and East Valley Fault Systems that will result in catastrophic events that traverses a large portion of the region.
The West Valley Fault has been noted to move every 100 years. Its last recorded movement was in 1884 according to the Manila Observatory that has been cataloguing such events. That means the movement of the West Valley Fault has been overdue. Although there is no monitoring system in the world that can accurately predict such events, historical geological models are the closest references available.
In the Metro manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study (MMEIRS) that was undertaken in 2004 and funded by the Japan International Coordinating Agency (JICA). Earlier in this series, the MMEIRS Study focused on the likely scenarios that will occur. The MMEIRS Study continues to be updated according to factors that are the result of further studies and observation by the concerned agencies.
Model 8 of the MMEIRS Study stated that 170,000 residential houses will collapse, 340,000 residential houses will be partly damaged, 34,000 persons will die, 114,000 persons will be injured. Fire will breakout and burn approximately 1,710 hectares and totally 18,000 additional persons will be killed by this secondary disaster. Moreover, infrastructures and lifelines will also be heavily damaged.
Based on the damage analysis results, urban vulnerability of Metropolitan Manila was analyzed.
Regional vulnerability characteristics against earthquake are as follows:
Type of Vulnerability:
I. Flammability and Evacuation Difficulty
Areas affected:
1) Navotas Bay Area
2) Manila North Port Area
3) South Eastern Manila City Area
4) Central Manila Bay Area
II. Building Collapse and Evacuation Difficulty
1) North Eastern Quezon City Area
2) Western Marikina City Area
3) Eastern Pasig City Area
4) Muntinlupa Laguna de Bae Area
5) Mandaluyong Makati City Border
Area
III. Flammability
1) Valenzuela-Kalookan South-Quezon west intersection
IV. Evacuation Difficulty
1) Metropolitan Manila Fringes - Northern Fringe
2) - Taguig Fringe
3) - Las Pinas Fringe
This is to emphasize that there are more factors to consider during the first hours of the Big One. LDRRMOs are aware of such factors and LGU contingency plans are continuously being updated so as so address the concerns.
(To be continued)
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